Is there any way of knowing when the Redemption will occur? Are those who know permitted to disclose it? Which great Torah scholars proposed specific dates for the Geula? What happened when these times arrived? How can we understand the dates that came and passed, yet the Geula did not arrive?
Are there dates that can genuinely be treated as meaningful? What is the severity of the prohibition against calculating the end of the Galus, and why is the punishment described so harshly? Does the prohibition change in different historical periods? Is the End fixed, or is it subject to change?
These and other related questions are explored in this week’s article.
When Will Moshiach Arrive
This week’s parasha describes the excruciating suffering we endured in the Egyptian Exile. In this context, we will continue discussing the topic we began last week: calculating the end of Galus. When will our current exile end? While last week we explained that Revealing the End does not mean uncovering a specific date but rather perceiving the overall picture and meaning of history, this week we will address another aspect: Is it at all possible to know when the Redemption will occur? Is revealing it permitted? Which Gedolei Yisroel mentioned specific dates? What eventually happened on these dates? And how can we explain dates for the Geula that passed?
The Prohibition
The Gemara teaches us (Sanhedrin 97b): “Tanya, Rabbi Natan says: This pasuk pierces and descends to the depths (Chavakuk 2:3): ‘For the vision is yet for an appointed time; it speaks of the End and does not deceive. Though it tarry, wait for it, for it will surely come; it will not delay.’ Not like our Rabbis, who would expound the pasuk (Daniel 7:25): ‘A time, times, and half a time.’ And not like Rabbi Samlai, who would expound (Tehilim 80:6): ‘You have fed them bread of tears and given them tears to drink in great measure.’ And not like Rabbi Akiva, who would expound (Chagai 2:6): ‘Yet once, it is but a little while, and I will shake the heavens and the earth.’ Rather: the first kingdom lasted seventy years, the second kingdom fifty-two years, and the kingdom of Ben Koziva two and a half years. What is the meaning of ‘it speaks of the End and does not deceive’? Rabbi Shmuel bar Nachmani said in the name of Rabbi Yonatan: May the bones of those who calculate the End rot, for they would say: once the End has arrived and [the Geula] not come, it will never come. Rather, wait for it, as it says: ‘Though it tarry, wait for it.’”
The Gemara here teaches us that The End was revealed to Daniel, who expressed it in cryptic terms: “a time, times, and half a time.” Chazal expounded on this pasuk and succeeded in arriving at a specific date, which the Gemara does not spell out. Rabbi Samlai, by contrast, derived the duration of the galus from another pasuk “You have fed them bread of tears.” Rabbi Akiva, for his part, interpreted the pasuk in Chagai to mean that the final exile would be brief, after which Moshiach would arrive. This is why he believed that Bar Kochva was the Moshiach.
Rabbi Yonatan, however, interpreted the pasuk in Chavakuk to mean that the End is something that cannot be revealed. Just as the depths of the tehom is incomprehensible, so too, no human being can know when the Galus will End. Therefore, one should not anticipate the dates given by those Sages.
The prophet adds, “and it should explode [Veyipach] to the End,” which the Gemara explains as a curse uttered by Habakkuk: may the bones of those who assign dates to the End of Galus rot. The Iyun Yaakov (Sanhedrin 97b) explains, based on several Midrashim (Bereshis Rabbah 28:3; Zohar, Toldos 137; Mateh Moshe, vol. 4, Seder Havdalah), that all human bones decompose in the grave, except for a tiny bone located at the top of the spine, known as the luz (or neskoi), from which one will be resurrected at the Resurrection of the Dead. However, the bones of those who calculate the End will all decay, even this little bone, and they will not merit to rise at T’chiyas Hameisim.
Similarly, it is stated in Maseches Derech Eretz (chapter 13) that Rabbi Yosei said: “One who gives a date for the End has no share in the World to Come.”
The Rambam (Commentary to the Mishnah, Sanhedrin, introduction to Perek Chelek) enumerates the Thirteen Principles of Faith, defining that the essence of a Jew is belief in these principles. One who believes in them is to be loved and shown compassion, even if he fails to control his impulses and stumbles in severe transgressions. But one who denies even a single principle is a heretic and an apostate, excluded from Klal Yisroel, and is to be despised and destroyed, even if he otherwise observes all the mitzvos of the Torah.
The twelfth principle is belief in the coming of Moshiach without fixing a time for his arrival, and without interpreting psukim in a way that would lead us to determine when he will arrive.
In light of this, we can understand the severity of the punishment for one who assigns a date and limits the time in which Moshiach is supposed to come. The Rambam’s commentators add that this involves two prohibitions:
- It confines faith to a specific time, rather than believing that Moshiach may come at any day.
- If the date passes and proves incorrect, it leads people to doubt the coming of Moshiach.
The Rambam, in his halachic work (Mishneh Torah, Hilchos Melachim 12:2), reiterates the obligation to believe in the coming of Moshiach. He explains that there are numerous opinions regarding how events will unfold, since even the neviim spoke in obscure terms, and Chazal had no transmitted tradition in these matters. Their statements were simply attempts to interpret and organize the psukim.
Therefore, one must not treat these Midrashim and Divrei Aggada as foundational principles. Rather, one should wait and believe in the general truth that Moshiach will come, while recognizing that we have no clear knowledge of the details: how he will come, when he will come, or how exactly it will happen.
Revealing the End
In light of these exceptionally severe statements, how are we to understand the fact that, throughout the generations, many great rabbanim engaged in calculating the end of the Galus and even disclosed these calculations to others?
Before addressing this question, let us examine the calculations themselves.
The first is Sefer Daniel, which is filled with cryptic prophecies concerning the End of Galus. Most prominent is the passage (Daniel 12:5–13), in which Daniel asks the linen-clothed man: “How long until the end of these wonders?” And Daniel records (Daniel 12:7): “And I heard the man clad in linen, who was above the waters of the river, and he raised his right hand and his left hand to the heavens, and he swore by the Life of the world, that in the time of [two] times and a half, and when they have ended shattering the strength of the holy people, all these will end.”
Daniel then says (ibid 8): “And I heard, but I did not understand, and I said, "My lord, what is the end of these?’”
He is answered: “Go, Daniel, for the words are sealed and hidden until the time of the End. They will be clarified and whitened, and many will be purified, and the wicked will pervert [them], and all the wicked will not understand, but the wise will understand. And from the time the daily sacrifice was removed and the silent abomination placed, is one thousand, two hundred, and ninety. Fortunate is he who waits and reaches days of one thousand, three hundred, and thirty-five. And you, go to the end, and you will rest and rise to your lot at the end of the days.” (Translation courtesy of Rabbi A. J. Rosenberg, Chabad.org)
Daniel himself declares that he hears – i.e. understands, yet does not fully comprehend. The angel responds that the matters are indeed hidden and sealed: the wicked will not understand, while the wise will. He then presents two calculations, one of 1,290 and another of 1,335 (apparently this number refers to days, which in this context mean years, as in “the days of his redemption”).
This immediately raises several questions: from which point do we begin counting these years? How do the two calculations fit together? And more fundamentally, why were these calculations stated in prophecy at all, if we are forbidden to know their true meaning?
In fact, in the beginning of the prophecy, the angel mentions “a time, times, and half a time” echoing another prophecy mentioned earlier (Daniel 7:23–25), which does not specify a date but rather describes a process: the final beast, meaning the final exile, will give rise to ten kingdoms; the last will differ from the earlier ones, will subdue three kings, persecute the holy ones of the Most High, seek to change times and law, and dominion will be given into its hand for “a time, times, and half a time”.
The Gemara too, has various dates for the End of Galus. This appears, at first glance, to contradict the sharp prohibition recorded in the Gemara against calculating the End. Some of these dates, on a superficial reading, seem to have already passed, while others have yet to arrive. How, then, are we to understand this apparent contradiction within the Gemara itself?
Later in the discussion, the Gemara rules that the psukim are not interpreted according to the Chachomim’s understandings. Rashi (Sanhedrin 97b) notes that these Chachomim who are not followed in this matter held that the End would be 1,400 years after the destruction, while according to Rabbi Samlai it would be 1,410 years after the destruction —between the years 5228 and 5240.
Rashi adds: “These have already passed and did not occur; I found this written in the name of Rabbi Shmuel bar David, of blessed memory.” The Vilna Gaon deleted this sentence since these dates were many years after Rashi’s passing. Therefore, it is clear that they were added by a later editor.
Nevertheless, Rav Saadia Gaon (Emunos Ve’De’os, Essay 8) wrote that, based on the psukim, the End would be in the year 5163 (1263). By contrast, the Ramban and Ralbag wrote that the End would be in the year 5118. The Kaftor Va’Ferach (chapter 6), authored in 5082 (1322), records both opinions.
One of the greatest commentators on the Chumash after the Spanish Expulsion, Don Yosef Iben Chiya (on Daniel 12; printed at the end of his commentary on the Megillos), calculated that the End would arrive around the year 5800, slightly before or slightly after. Yet he adds several crucial words: “So that the children of Yisrael may dwell securely upon their land for approximately three hundred years of the sixth millennium, in order that it be visibly evident to all that the truth is with them, and that they may enjoy this world in body and soul, in place of the suffering they endured under the yoke of the exile of the nations, in body and soul.”
Interestingly, he does not speak of the Moshiach, the full Redemption, or the rebuilding of the Beis Hamikdash. Rather, he states that during the final three hundred years of the world, from the year 5800 (1940) until the end of the sixth millennium, the Jewish people would dwell in their land. This is one statement which we can see unfolding before our very eyes, albeit with an important caveat: we do not know the future, and it is possible that even this calculation contains an error. We will continue to believe in Moshiach imminent arrival even if, Heaven forbid, the Jewish nation were to be exiled again from their land.
The Malbim (on Daniel 12) explains that the process of the Geula would begin in the year 5673 (1913) and continue until 5688 (1928), at which point sacrifices would already be offered [in the Beis Hamikdash]. However, the Resurrection of the Dead would only occur in the year 5963. We did not merit that sacrifices are offered in 5688, yet it is difficult to ignore the fact that the First World War began in 5674.
The Chafetz Chaim spoke at length about the First World War, identifying it as the first of three wars of Gog and Magog. Throughout his later years until his passing in 1933, he repeatedly spoke about a second war which would soon follow — one so severe that the first would pale in comparison. After this, he said, there would be a period of respite, followed by a third and final world war, during which Mashiach would arrive.
In light of these statements, it is entirely plausible to reconcile the Malbim’s calculations with the course of historical events, even if certain aspects of their realization were not fully evident to him at the time.
We have briefly mentioned several of the more prominent dates stated in the commentators, though many additional dates were proposed as well.
How The Was End Calculated
How could Rabbenu Sa’adya Gaon engage in calculations of the End? The Rambam in Iggeret Teiman that Rabbenu Saadia Gaon fully understood that no human being can truly know the appointed End, and that any attempt to calculate it is bound to be mistaken. Even so, he felt there was an urgent need to fortify his generation’s faith. For that reason, he permitted himself to engage in calculations of the time of the Geula, illustrating that the length of the exile is hinted at in the psukim in Daniel.
Therefore, his statements should not be challenged simply because the date he calculated did not come true. He never intended to establish a fixed timetable but rather to reinforce the nations emunah at a time of great spiritual danger.
The Rambam further relates that Rabbenu Saadia Gaon told the community that he had received another tradition, according to which the End would come earlier, in the year 4972. According to our previous explanation, he permitted himself to reveal this tradition in order to strengthen the Yemenite community after the severe crisis that prompted the writing of the letter. He conveyed to them that a relatively near End was possible — and that this date might, in fact, be the true one.
The commentators explain that none of these calculations were meant to reveal an actual, definitive date. Rather, their purpose was to interpret the psukim in Daniel. The text itself states that these matters are sealed and hidden, and we lack the necessary information to calculate them precisely -- both in terms of when to begin counting, and how to apply the details. Chazal therefore outlined only the general framework of the calculation while noting that according to this framework, the Geula could arrive on a certain year.
All of the calculations mentioned are based on the same core ideas—“a time, times, and half a time,” and “an appointed time, appointed times”— which refer to measuring the duration of Am Yisrael’s exile. However, even small differences in how this framework is applied can shift the resulting date by hundreds of years.
Rabbi Chaim Kanievsky (Derech Sichah, Vayechi 49:1) distinguishes between interpreting the psukim of Daniel, and calculating the End in the prohibited sense. One who believes that the End must occur on the specific date he has calculated violates a very severe prohibition. However, one who merely offers an interpretation, or suggests that his reading of the psukim points in a certain direction without asserting that this understanding is definitive, transgresses no prohibition.
According to the Malbim (Daniel 12:4), as we approach the end of the Galus, the details will become clearer and clearer, and the calculations will be revealed.
As the story goes, when the Malbim was young, he once traveled with his father by wagon to a distant city. Travel was difficult and dangerous, and the trip was estimated to take a long time. At the outset of the journey, it was impossible to anticipate the hardships along the way. Therefore, when he asked his father, “When will we arrive?” his father replied that such a question was inappropriate and impossible to answer.
Several weeks later, however, he was surprised to hear his father ask the wagon driver when they would arrive. The child, who would one day become the Malbim, asked his father: “Did you not say that one should not ask such questions?” His father explained: “At the beginning of the journey, there is no point in asking. But now that we are close, even though I do not know how close -- perhaps an hour or two, or a day or two -- it is precisely the time to find out when it will end and prepare for it.”
So too, as one draws near to the End, this becomes appropriate to seek understanding in the general timing of the upcoming Geula.
Incorrect Calculation of the End
The Ran (Derashos HaRan, Derush 5) explains that these matters were deliberately recorded in an unusually obscure and cryptic fashion for two reasons.
First, because so many years of exile were destined to pass from the time of Daniel until the Redemption, Hashem did not want people to fall into despair. Therefore, his prophecy was formulated in a way that allows it to be read as though the redemption might not be far off, preserving hope even across long generations of waiting.
Second, the obscurity is inherent to the nature of the prophecy itself. Daniel prophesied at the end of the prophetic era, when prophecy had already diminished significantly. Whereas Moshe’s prophecy was clear, as the Torah states: “with a clear vision and not in riddles,” the later prophets experienced prophecy through riddles and highly veiled visions. The Ran points to the Navi Zechariah, whose interpretations have so taxed the commentators that its meaning remains exceptionally difficult to understand.
The Ran further notes that mistakes happen even when the duration of exile is known. The First Redemption from Egypt was explicitly known to last four hundred years. Nevertheless, Shevet Efraim erred by counting from Bris Bein HaBesarim rather than from Yitzchak’s birth. Also at the Second Redemption, where seventy years were explicitly stated, there were numerous mistakes regarding the correct starting point. With the Third Redemption, whose End was conveyed from the outset in a vague and concealed manner, it is inevitable that those who attempt to calculate it — even the greatest Chachomim — will inevitably err.
As the Rambam writes, even the prophets themselves did not know these matters with full clarity, and the Chachomim had no tradition or definitive transmission concerning them. Everything written on this subject was intended only as an interpretation of the psukim, not as a fixed ruling or an established, factual timetable.
Possibility of Calculating the End
The Akeidas Yitzchak (Parashas Pekudei, Gate 56) asks: why does one who calculates the End delay the Redemption? He brings as an example the work Megillas HaMegalleh, a treatise on calculating the end of the Galus, composed around the year 4880 by Rabbi Avraham bar Chiyya, one of the scholars of Spain. He notes that while this author explained all past calculations up to his own time in a remarkably compelling way based on the words of the Neviim and Chazal, not a single one of his predictions regarding the future came true.
Why did a talmid chacham who so successfully explained the past, fail in predicting the future, even though he used the same methods of interpretation? One might naturally argue that interpreting obscure, riddle-like prophecies allows for great flexibility and can be fitted to past events, whereas fitting them to the future would require prophecy itself. However, the Akeidah rejects this explanation, insisting that with regard to the past, the interpretation was indeed complete, accurate, and true.
He explains that the world operates through two distinct systems. One is the natural order, which does not change based on human actions and does not distinguish between the righteous and the wicked. The second is individual Divine providence, which operates in precise reflection of human action. In His great wisdom, Hashem determined that the world would be governed simultaneously by both these two forces.
What does this mean? Chazal write (Chullin 60b) that Hashem created the entire world in its full form and saw that it was good. That is, everything was created according to the laws of nature that G-d embedded in creation. He foresaw through all generations that this form was the most efficient and optimal way to utilize reality, and the best means through which to bring about the complete Redemption. Therefore, the world does not ordinarily operate through miracles, but through nature.
The deeper meaning of “nature’s laws” is that these laws form the ideal framework through which the entire world will realize its mission and reach its fulfilment. When a particular plant follows its rules of nature, and a particular animal follows its own, the entire world will progress toward and reach its intended purpose. Consequently, a miracle -- a deviation from the laws of nature -- appear to contradict this principle.
However, the truth is that the miracles that seem to deviate from natural law were, in essence, embedded in the creation. For example, Hashem stipulated with the sea at the time of its creation that it would split at Krias Yam Suf. Thus, this miracle was not a deviation from the plan, but part of the plan itself. For this reason, miracles that violate these principles are generally undesirable, and Chazal criticize a reality that depends excessively on miracles.
However, there is another type of miracle: what we call today Hashgacha Pratis. Nothing occurs against its natural order, yet the timing and sequencing of the events is miraculous. Megillas Esther is a prime example of a miracle that involves no breach of natural law. There is nothing overtly supernatural here, no change in the nature of the world; yet the statistical likelihood of all these events aligning is infinitesimal: that the queen would be Jewish; that her identity would remain unknown; that she would find favor in the king’s eyes despite many reasons for his anger; that her fate would not be like Vashti’s; that the king would become enraged at his closest confidant, Haman, because on that very night he could not sleep; that on that night the book of chronicles would be opened, recording how Mordechai had saved the king’s life; that Mordechai had indeed overheard the mysterious conversation; that he understood the language of Bigsan and Teresh; that he chose to inform the king; that Haman, a brilliant strategist, misinterpreted the situation and assumed the king meant him; that the king realized Haman coveted the royal crown for himself, and so on.
After understating this, let us return to the Akeidah: Hashem, in His great wisdom, governs the world through two systems that inherently contradict each other. The natural system is open to interpretation, while the system of Hashgacha Pratis interprets the natural system.
How is this? Let us look, for example at the Egyptian Exile. Within the natural framework and the Divine plan for bringing the world to its full Redemption, four hundred years of exile in Egypt were necessary. Yet when, according to the system of Hashgacha Pratis, when the time for Redemption arrived, G-d calculated that exile would be counted from Yitzchak’s birth, and not from the moment the Egyptians began to enslave Am Yisrael with harsh labor.
Similarly, the Babylonian exile explicitly prophesized to last seventy years. But what would end after seventy years – the Babylonian rule? The Beis Hamikdash be rebuilt? History shows that indeed, after seventy years from the beginning of Nevuchadnezzar’s reign, the Babylonian kingdom fell: Cyrus conquered Babylon and Belshazzar was killed. Did this signal the end of the exile? Or perhaps it began with the exile of Yehoyachin, in which case, after seventy years, Cyrus issued his declaration and the Jewish people began rebuilding the Beis Hamikdash and resettling the land after fifty-two years of desolation. Yet this was only a partial Redemption: Cyrus later forbade further returnees from traveling, and Achashverosh halted the construction of the Beis Hamikdash.
Only after seventy years from the destruction of the Beis Hamikdash did the complete redemption occur, and permission was again granted to return and rebuild.
Thus, even with explicit prophecies of a relatively short exile, there were multiple ways to interpret them. The very existence of an explicit prophecy of seventy years caused the Jewish people not to yearn actively for the Geula or change their ways, since redemption would come regardless. Conversely, when redemption did not arrive according to the initial calculations, this led to weakness and despair, rather than anticipation, repentance, and prayer to G-d for deliverance.
In this light, the Akeidah explains that Redemption must be understood in accordance with Yeshayahu’s nevuah (56:1): “Keep justice and perform righteousness, for My salvation is near to come, and My righteousness is about to be revealed.”
The Geulah comes through our actions. We are able to hasten it, and Hashem’s righteousness is revealed in the manner in which He reinterprets and redirects the natural order, shortening the exile in ways that transcend mathematic calculations.
The Akeidah further cites Chazal (Sanhedrin 97a), who state that Mashiach comes “when one is distracted,” meaning that even in a time that appears unfit for redemption, if Hashem so wills, He alters the appointed End. This is the meaning of the pasuk (Yeshayahu 60:22), “I am Hashem; in its time I will hasten it,” as well as (Chavakuk 2:3), “Though it tarries, wait for it; for it will surely come, it will not delay.” Even when the End seems postponed, one must wait in faith — for once it arrives, it comes swiftly and without delay — because Hashem aligns the natural order and interprets it solely according to His will.
This is what the Rambam intended when he taught that occupying oneself with calculating the End — that is, fixating on the mechanics of history and the natural unfolding of events — does not lead to love of Hashem or fear of Heaven. His words are strikingly prescient: following the news does nothing to enhance our yiras Shamayim or ahavas Hashem. On the contrary, the more one binds oneself to the natural order — what the Chazon Ish describes as “abandoning life to its natural course” — the more one distances himself from Hashem and from a life lived in conscious attachment to Him.
